Polyester Negative Expected To Fall, Raw Materials Continue To Differentiate

survey:

　　 The price of US crude oil 09 contract broke through last week, rising 1.4% weekly to close above $41. Buyou 09 contract rose 0.74% on a weekly basis to close above $43. Crude oil in the external market fluctuated as a whole, and the center of gravity moved up slowly. Domestic SC crude oil 09 main contract weekly decline was 1.63%, continued to fall on Friday night. The trend of internal and external markets is obviously divided.

Overseas outbreaks are still repeated. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States has reached 4.2725 million by the end of the reporting period, with nearly 150000 deaths, and more than 70000 new confirmed cases in a single day. Meanwhile, the epidemic situation in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa is not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil also reached 234900.

As the load in Jiapu area of Changxing market rebounded to 80%, the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms rose sharply to 64%, and the elastic operation rate rose to 74%. Polyester load last week due to the restart of the 400000 ton unit of Yuanfang, the expected decline was disappointed, and the load rose to 91.50% on Friday. Polyester products went to the warehouse sharply last week, and the inventory pressure was relieved.

　　PTA：

PTA spot average price fluctuated last week and rose slightly to 3490 yuan / ton on Friday. TA disk main processing poor shock this week, to Friday 673. Spot processing difference is greatly reduced to below 600. The px-npt spread narrowed slightly to $151 last week.

glycol:

As of July 20, MEG port inventory in East China's main port area was about 1.514 million tons, up 31000 tons compared with the previous period. According to the shipping report, from July 20 to July 26, the total amount of the four major ports is expected to be 205000 tons, which is more neutral. Arrivals are forecast to decline for three consecutive weeks - related to the increase in maintenance of overseas units. Zhangjiagang and Taicang two mainstream reservoir area shipment recently increased, the average daily total shipment volume of the two ports in recent 7 days is about 13000 tons / day. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and the port detention is serious.

　　       Profit and cost

1 raw material Market

1.1 crude oil, NPT, PX

Based on CFR Japanese naphtha, naphtha (CFR Japan) basically rose last week and rose to $398 / T on Friday. The price of US crude oil 09 contract broke through last week, rising 1.4% weekly to close above $41. Buyou 09 contract rose 0.74% on a weekly basis to close above $43. Crude oil in the external market fluctuated as a whole, and the center of gravity moved up slowly. The naphtha Brent crude oil price spread widened slightly this week compared with the previous week, reaching around $79 on Friday; the naphtha WTI crude oil price spread widened to about $95 on Friday. PX (CFR China) prices surged higher in the week to $549 / T on Friday. The px-npt spread remained low and volatile at $151 on Friday. PX Asia's operating rate and PX China's operating rate were basically stable compared with last week.

2. Changes in cost and profit

The average spot price of oil to ethylene glycol rose sharply in the week and rose to 3600 yuan on Friday. The average price of the week was about 2546 yuan, which was 85 yuan higher than last week's price center. The coal based contract price was about 3346-3396 yuan. In the chart, it is based on the nearby spot price - 3250 yuan / ton. The loss of coal to ethylene glycol ended 6 consecutive weeks of aggravation, the loss was slightly restored last week, the highest regional loss was around - 1300 yuan. The cash flow loss of ethylene glycol production decreased slightly to around - 102 US dollars. The loss of cash flow from naphtha to ethylene glycol increased to around us $52 / T. The cash flow loss of MTO methanol production line was significantly restored to - 863 yuan / ton. However, the losses of ethylene glycol in each line continued to ease.

　　 Supply

1. Equipment maintenance

Yisheng's production capacity will increase from 0.25 million tons to 0.25 million tons, including 0.25 million tons of staple fiber (from 2010 to 2010). In late July, the 400000 ton Yuanfang plant, which was shut down in the early stage of July, was restarted, while new units were still put into operation. Polyester load picked up slightly, up from 91.50% as of last Friday. Polyester production and sales performance last week is more optimistic, the transaction is fair.

Recent changes of polyester plant: 1

　　 CCF: source of CCF

PTA domestic plant: as the 2.5 million ton PTA plant of Hengli phase 5 was put into operation at the end of June, the PTA capacity base was adjusted to 54.83 million tons. Yangzi Petrochemical's 600000 ton unit was shut down for one day on Friday and is expected to restart on Saturday. It is planned to overhaul for two weeks in the first ten days of August.

Table 2: recent changes of PTA main units:

　　 Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

Ethylene glycol unit: coal to ethylene glycol unit load and comprehensive operating rate decreased slightly. As of July 23, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in China was 58.54%. The start-up load of coal to ethylene glycol was 41.72%.

Table 3: recent changes in major MEG units

　　 Data source: CCF Zhongzhou energy and Chemical Research Institute

The ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang will be put into operation from the middle ten days to the last ten days of this week. Sinochem Quanzhou's 500 000 t / a MEG new equipment's reverse commissioning plan was postponed to around the end of August.

　　 2 PTA inventory

PTA plant inventory for eight consecutive weeks to maintain stable at 5.5 days. PTA raw material inventory of polyester plant is stable for four consecutive weeks in 10 days. PTA converted total social inventory decreased significantly compared with last week - the decline rate of last week was mainly from finished product inventory, that is, polyester went to the warehouse a lot last week. PTA absolute inventory is still the highest level of the same period in recent 4 years.

　　 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory

Ethylene glycol port inventory on July 20, the latest inventory showed a significant accumulation compared with the previous period. As of July 20, MEG port inventory in East China's main port area was about 1.514 million tons, up 31000 tons compared with the previous period. According to the shipping report, from July 20 to July 26, the total amount of the four major ports is expected to be 205000 tons, which is more neutral. Arrivals are forecast to decline for three consecutive weeks - related to the increase in maintenance of overseas units. Zhangjiagang and Taicang two mainstream reservoir area shipment recently increased, the average daily total shipment volume of the two ports in recent 7 days is about 13000 tons / day. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and the port detention is serious.

　　 Demand

1 polyester

1.1 polyester operating rate and plant change

There was no new maintenance plan announced last week for polyester, and the expected load reduction was not realized. Due to the restart of the 400000 ton unit of Yuanfang, the overall load increased to 91.50%, which was still the second lowest level only lower than the level in 2018. Among them, the operation rate of polyester filament was basically stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% to 75.3%; the load of polyester bottle flakes rose slightly by 0.3% to 77.90%, which was a two-week recovery; the short operation rate of direct spinning polyester was maintained at 94.30% for three consecutive weeks. The operating rate of direct spinning polyester staple is still the highest level in the same period of history; the operating rate of polyester filament is basically the lowest level in the same period of previous years; the operating rate of polyester bottle flake is only higher than the next low level in 2019.

1.2 polyester inventory

As of last Friday, the average stocks of POY, FDY and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 17.5 days, 16.3 days and 29.4 days respectively, which were 3.2 days, 1.5 days and 2.2 days lower than last Friday. Polyester staple fiber finished six consecutive weeks of accumulation, inventory fell to 5.2 days last week, down 2.2 days month on month. Polyester bottle chip inventory decreased slightly to around 15-20 days. The inventory of polyester staple fiber fell back to the balanced level in the same period of the previous year; the inventory of polyester filament and polyester bottle piece maintained the highest level in the same period over the years. Polyester products inventory pressure eased last week.

　　 2 terminal conditions

Last week, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing started to improve as a whole. Up to now, the operating rate of loom and texturing is 64% and 74% respectively. Last week, the weaving machines in the Jiapu area of Changxing, which was affected by water backflow, recovered to 80% in Changxing.

　　 The number of grey fabric inventory days of sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area has been rising continuously from 5.25 to 45 days at present, which is the highest level in the same period of previous years. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, the off-season of this year came earlier than that of previous years, and began to accumulate continuously at the end of may (in previous years, grey fabric inventory began to accumulate until the end of June to the beginning of July). Under the background of off-season, grey cloth inventory is still expected to continue to accumulate. In the same period of last ten days of July, the textile industry in Jiaocheng began to be good. Pay attention to whether the volume preference is persistent.