Analysis Of PX Market Operation In The Three Quarter Of 2019

[introduction] the three quarter PX price trend showed a general decline in volatility. In the middle of September, it was attacked by Saudi oil fields, and the cost side was greatly increased. PX prices rose periodically, and then returned to calm. After mid September, naphtha prices continued to be strong, cracking spreads were at a high level, and PX and naphtha spreads continued to fall. As of September 30th, PXN fell to $288.54 / tonne, down 34.585 US dollars / tonne compared with the end of June.

1. Market Review

Figure 1 PX price trend

At the beginning of July, the Saudi Arabian Amy factory was shut down by accident, the supply of PX market was tight, and the Korean factories actively entered the market, purchasing spot and other comprehensive factors, which led to the rise of PX price in the early 7 months, and the price of the PX rose by us $/ ton. However, beginning in late 7, with the sharp fall of PTA futures, the terminal pet season is not prosperous, and so on, the PX price began to descend. Although mid September was driven by the cost side and the PX price was rising at a higher stage, the price of PX fell rapidly with the decline of the base end due to the limited time of Saudi Arabia device. As of September 30th, the price of PX was 794.17 US dollars / ton CFR China, compared with the end of June, it dropped by 43.83 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 5.23%.

2. profit analysis

Figure 2 PX profit analysis

The 3 quarter PX profits showed a downward trend overall, mainly due to:

1, a series of new capacity production, Sinochem Hongrun 600 thousand tons PX plant in August mass production. The 1 million ton PX plant of Hainan refining and chemical plant was put into operation in September.

2, the cost side naphtha is strong, the price of liquefied petroleum gas is higher, and a large number of factories purchase large quantities of naphtha. After the attack of Saudi Arabia equipment, naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas prices are relatively high, and the impact of comprehensive advantages is higher, naphtha rises larger, and the price difference between cracking stocks is strong.

As of September 30th, PXN fell to $288.54 / ton, down 10.7% from the end of June, down 34.585 US dollars / ton.

3. import situation

Figure 3 PX import situation

In the 3 quarter, the trend of PX imports showed a trend of rising in 7-8 months. The main reason was that the import volume was low in June, and PX was more stocking. At the same time, a large plant installed in 7-8 months, resulting in a narrow load drop. In September, the import volume of PX continued to decline, mainly due to the upgrading of domestic production and the resumption of nearly full capacity operation of a large plant in September.

4. market outlook

In October 31st, new Feng Ming put into operation 1 million 100 thousand tons of PTA plant, and another 1 million 100 thousand tons of PTA plant will be put into operation in November. In December, there are still 3 million 700 thousand tons of PTA installations put into operation. It is expected that the supply of PX will be tight before the end of the year. But due to the commissioning of a series of new PX installations, it is expected that the profit increase of PX will be more difficult. The price trend depends mainly on the cost price.