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PTA:7 Prices Fell To 23% Rebound Or Reproduction

2019/8/9 10:56:00 0

PTA always has a wave of divine manipulation, which makes people feel confused, and rises and falls.

In July, the PTA was slumped, and it began to rush down from 6715 yuan at the beginning of the month. As of August 8th, the price of PTA was closed at 5165 yuan, and the price of PTA dropped by 23.08 percentage points. The processing fee of PTA also dropped from 2004 yuan to 940 yuan, or 53.09 percentage points.

Recently, the market rumors: "PTA mainstream factory main port tight supply, not shipping." Spot tension is undoubtedly a good fuse, but is it really tense? Not yet known. After all, the mainstream factories have produced quite a lot of goods. Most traders and downstream factories can deliver the goods from the market. We can see that there are still some goods in the main port, and factories do not sell them, and there are also traders. At the same time, another PTA factory which had not been shipped for a long time was shipped near Ping Shui in the morning, and the price in the afternoon was much higher than the futures contract price. Is this operation really stressful? Is it still news of speculation? Under the complicated information, we need to operate closely and reasonably.

Supply side or existence weakened

surface One The near future PTA Overview of plant maintenance

Enterprise name	Capacity (10000 tons)	Planned maintenance	Plan restart
Ningbo Liwan	Seventy	Two thousand and nineteen July 27th 2013	It is expected to restart next week.
Fuhai creation	Four hundred and fifty (three sets)	Seven Maintenance for 9 months	Seven Restart heating on 29 February, August, 2 days to produce products, negative burden
Yisheng Ningbo	Sixty-five	Seven Maintenance for 24 months	Restart to be determined
Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fibre	Thirty-five	Two thousand and nineteen August 1st 2013	Overhaul for 45 days
Hengli petrochemical 1#	Two hundred and twenty	Eight Month	Overhaul for 15 days
Jialong Petrochemical Company	Sixty	Eight Maintenance for 2 months	Overhaul for 1 months
Hua Bin petrochemical	Seventy	Eight Maintenance for 8 months	Overhaul for about 10 days.
Yangzi Petrochemical	Sixty-five	August 9th overhaul	Overhaul for a week
Honggang petrochemical	One hundred and fifty	Preliminary plan for annual inspection in September

Source: lung Chung

Next week, PTA plant maintenance is expected to be weak, only Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons / year device maintenance plan, but Ningbo Liwan and Yisheng Ningbo deposit restart expectations, so the start will be reduced to 83.3%, do not rule out the possibility of accidental parking and device restart.

With the polyester plant put into operation and restart, demand increases.

surface Two Downstream polyester repair and reduction plan

factory	Involving capacity (10000 tons)	repair time	Estimated restart time	Products involved
Jiabao	Three point six	Five Month reduction of 100 tons / day	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Three lane	Thirty-six	Five 9 tons reduction of 600 tons on July, and is expected to reduce output by 400 tons / day at the end of July.	Undetermined	Psf
Jiangsu No. 1 Factory	Fourteen	Five In the middle of December, the drop in July 14th was 10% again, and again in July 22nd.	Undetermined	Filament and slice
Hua Xin	Seven	Five Month 13 reduced production 80 tons / day, mid July reduced production 30 tons, at the end of July reduced production 90 tons / day.	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Wings Of The Eagle	Twenty	Five On April 15, production fell to 5.	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Huaxi chemical fibre	Five	Six The first ten days of a month	Undetermined	Psf
Zhuhai Huarun	Twelve	Seven Production decreased by 20% on 3 February.	At present, the load has been increased to 9 per cent, rising to full load in mid June.	PET bottle flakes
Changzhou Huarun	Twenty	Seven Production decreased by 20% on 5 February.	Undetermined	PET bottle flakes
Tiansheng	Forty-four	Seven On January 6, the output was reduced by 1200 tons / day. In July 9th, a set of 200 thousand devices was stopped. In July, the output of 15 tons was reduced by 500 tons / day.	At present, 1000 tons / day has been resumed, and the total load will be increased by 400 thousand tons next week.	Filament and slice
New Feng Ming	Seventy-two	Seven Production decreased by 10% on June 5, and 500 tons / day in July 12th, and 450 tons / day in July 19th.	At present, 200 tons / day is first resumed, and the load has been postponed.	Polyester filament
Big wo	Sixteen	Seven On April 9, production was cut by 30%.	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Xinmin	Twenty	Seven Production decreased by 100 tons / day on 13 February, and 200 thousand tons from July 18th.	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Heng Yi	Eighteen	Seven Device failure on 14 February	Postponed until early August.	Polyester filament
Shanghai far spinning	Forty	Seven 15 June	Undetermined	PET bottle flakes
Jin Xin	Six	Seven 30% reduction in late mid month	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Three lane	Forty	Seven At the end of the month, production was reduced by 600 tons / day, and the production was completed in early August.	Estimated overhaul for two months.	PET bottle flakes
Baosheng	Fifteen	Eight 2 June	Estimated overhaul for 20 days.	PET bottle flakes
Cheng Gao	Sixty	Seven Stop the first line on 23 th.	Five No. two Xian Shengwen	PET bottle flakes
A factory in Jiangsu	Twenty	Seven 25 June	Eight 4 June	PET chip
Jinsheng	One point five	Seven The month is down by 15%.	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Shen Jiu	Two point five	Seven The month is down by 5%.	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Hongtai	Three point six	Seven 100 tons / day reduction at the end of the month.	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Hua Hong	Ten	Seven Month end device failure reduction 300 tons / day	Eight Near 11	Psf
prosperous	Ten	Seven 30 June	Estimated overhaul for 20 days.	Polyester filament
A factory in Jiangyin	Ten	Seven 31 June	Undetermined	Psf
Hua Xiang	Forty	Eight 6 June	Estimated overhaul for 15-20 days.	Filament and slice
Pan Asia	Twenty-six	Eight Mid month	Estimated overhaul for 1 months.	PET bottle flakes

Source: lung Chung

The polyester plant has been upgraded to 85.44% under the restoration operation of Tiansheng, Yizheng and Zhuhai Huarun. Some factories in the aftermarket have planned to increase their installation load plans, such as Tiansheng, Huahong, Hengyi, etc., but there are also expectations for Pan Asian maintenance. In addition, there are also 300 thousand tonnes of equipment in Tung Kun hang state, which is expected to start production. Therefore, polyester production is expected to increase slightly. However, it is not excluded that other factories will join in maintenance and production reduction. The average starting point of polyester will be around 85.62% next week.

To sum up: at present, the main source of large factories is tight, and the shipment has been stopped. And the 700 thousand tons of Hua Bin has entered the overhaul. In addition, Hengli 2 million 200 thousand tons are expected to be maintained in August. At the same time, the demand for production of the downstream polyester with Tiansheng and Chenggao plant has increased. On the whole, supply is decreasing and demand is increasing. If PTA spot goods flow is not smooth, PTA market price will rebound slightly. But the market should also pay close attention to the order of the terminal in winter.