Global Stock Market Generally Rises To Welcome The "New" A-Share Market To Repeatedly Bottom Out

We hope you can see our persistence and efforts in research, from top to bottom, industry comparison, corporate profitability, theme strategy, etc. If viewed from a quarter, we maintain the judgment of "awakening spring restlessness" in the 2017 annual strategy report, and "restlessness" originates from the expectation of "reform".

　　 1、 Overseas: the first week of 2017 stock market The price of gold and other non-ferrous metals continued to rebound; The United States is fully employed, the economic recovery continues, the high dollar index drops slightly for two consecutive weeks, and crude oil prices fluctuate. Follow up focus and Trump's inauguration on January 20.

The global economic climate and inflation are still expanding steadily. In the past week, major economies in the world successively disclosed PMI data in December, which showed that the economic recovery in Europe, the United States and Japan was gradually warming up. At the same time, inflation has also seen signs of rising, especially the rise in energy prices. The CPI of the Eurozone in December rose 1.1% year-on-year (0.5% in October and 0.6% in November respectively). In addition, the growth of new jobs in the United States in December disclosed on Friday was slightly lower than expected, but the rebound in wages showed that the momentum of improvement in the job market has not changed, laying the foundation for the accelerated economic growth in 2017 and the further interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.

According to the minutes of the December meeting released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, almost all Fed policymakers believe that the Trump government's fiscal stimulus policies may accelerate economic growth. Once implemented, they may push up inflation, thus prompting the Federal Reserve to more aggressively raise borrowing costs. Many members at the meeting expected that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at a faster pace.

In terms of exchange rate, in the first week of the New Year, the RMB exchange rate stabilized first. On Wednesday, there was a sharp rise overseas. The offshore RMB exchange rate reached around 6.85. The expected management showed results, and the expectation of "bearish RMB" decreased. The strength of the RMB made the US dollar adjust to a high level for two consecutive weeks, and the US dollar index this week was -0.19%.

Follow up suggestions focus on Trump's inauguration on January 20. Trump promised during the election that he would double the pace of economic growth in the United States and "rebuild" its infrastructure; In addition, Trump advocates "trade protection" and "manufacturing returning to the United States".

　　 2、 Food prices rose slightly near the Spring Festival. In the first week of the New Year, the People's Bank of China increased its efforts to withdraw funds. It is estimated that the probability of tight balance of funds before the Spring Festival is high.

As the weather turns cold all over the country and the factors of preparing new year goods for the Spring Festival are superimposed, the domestic vegetable price continues to rise, the pig price rises slightly, the overall food price shows a "steady and rising" trend, and the market is still vigilant against inflation.

Since the inter-bank funds were generally loose after the assessment at the end of last year, the central bank withdrew funds on a large scale this week. This week, the central bank put 150 billion yuan into reverse repo, 745 billion yuan was due for reverse repo, and 595 billion yuan was returned in the whole week (245 billion yuan was returned last week). In terms of follow-up funds, taking into account the "Spring Festival factor" plus the "month end effect", and the rapid issuance of new shares, whether the central bank can invest funds in a timely and large-scale manner has become an uncertain factor. At the current time point, we tend to have a higher probability of maintaining a tight balance of capital before the festival.

　　 3、 Focusing on the "two sessions" on March 5, "risk prevention and bubble suppression" and "deepening reform" became the main theme of the "two sessions" in 2017.

2017 The "two sessions" will be held on March 5 as scheduled. It can be predicted that in the near future, all ministries, local provinces and cities are busy preparing relevant materials. Its policy keynote is to emphasize that its primary task in 2017 is to put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position, and its monetary policy is set to be "prudent and neutral" to serve structural reform.

"Deepening reform" will become the "top priority" of economic work in 2017. According to the Central Economic Work Conference held in December, the reform in 2017 will focus on promoting "excess capacity" Supply-side reform ”, "agricultural structural supply side reform", "state-owned enterprise reform (especially mixed ownership reform)" and other three aspects, which guide the direction of structural investment for the A-share market.

The reform of state-owned enterprises is moving towards the "deep-water area", and the importance of "mixed reform" is constantly rising, and it has entered the landing stage. The policies in 2017 will continue, and the market will focus repeatedly.

The official disclosure of "No. 1 Document" is approaching, and is expected to be in late January or early February. "Agricultural structural supply side reform" and "land system reform" have become the main focus, and agricultural subdivisions, such as "seed industry grain, land reclamation, land circulation, agricultural modernization", are expected to receive financial attention.

　　 4、 Investment suggestion: Be ready to go, with twists and turns, and the watershed is still around the "Spring Festival"

In the past week, although A-shares rose slightly, the trading volume was still not significantly enlarged, and the daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 350 billion to 450 billion yuan. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, institutional investors mostly completed year-end assessment tasks, and their willingness to continue high-frequency trading declined. With the approaching of the "Spring Festival", most of the major institutional investors are busy with year-end summary. We expect the "Spring Festival" Previously, A-share trading was light, and the A-share market was at the stage of repeated bottoming.

In terms of allocation, in addition to "the main line of agricultural structural supply side reform, mixed reform and inflation", we suggest focusing on "upstream oil and gas production, high-quality oil services and some petrochemical products" benefiting from "the rise of crude oil". In addition, we are also optimistic about the "gold" sector; In terms of theme, it is suggested to focus on "nuclear power, the Belt and Road" Etc.

As for the growth plate, it is still on the left, so we suggest waiting patiently for more deterministic factors to emerge.

For more information, please pay attention to the report of World Clothing, Shoes and Hats Network.