Cotton Textile Market: The Opportunity Of Substitute Market Should Not Be Ignored

Due to the high requirements of domestic textile enterprises for cotton, the market presents the phenomenon that "the supply of good cotton is in short supply, and the flood of poor cotton has become a worry". Therefore, cotton holding enterprises have a large increase in the quotation of lint with better resources, which is good for the guannong shares, which account for 23.05% of the company's main business income. This cotton price rise will benefit guannong shares significantly.

　　 Viscose staple fiber Both cotton and cotton can be used as raw materials for weaving, and both of them have good performance in hygroscopicity and dyeing performance, with strong substitution and high correlation of price level. With the rise of cotton (cotton yarn) prices, garment manufacturers in the downstream of the cotton industry chain are likely to use more viscose staple fiber as a substitute for cotton yarn due to cost factors, which will increase the demand for related chemical products such as viscose staple fiber. In the medium and long term, it is conducive to the related chemical industry Sub industry rapid growth.

Judging from the current market performance, viscose staple fiber has indeed seen a certain price rise in the short term, which is due to both environmental factors and demand growth. However, it is more likely that the recovery of viscose staple fiber industry is gradually entering a long boom. Shenwan Hongyuan securities expects that "the capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber industry will continue to rise for a long time, and it is expected to reach the peak in 2017 (about 88%, and 82% in 2015), and continue to 2018. The viscose staple fiber industry is ushering in a long-term economic recovery".

In the medium and long term, under the background that the growth rate of new production capacity of viscose staple fiber is gradually slowing down in recent years, the product price may even enter the price range of 15000 yuan ~ 17000 yuan / ton. According to Haitong Securities calculation, viscose staple fiber Price For each increase of 500 yuan, the net profits of Sanyou chemical, Nanjing chemical fiber and Aoyang technology will increase by 182 million yuan, 46 million yuan and 84 million yuan respectively; EPS increased by 0.1 yuan / share, 0.15 yuan / share and 0.12 yuan / share respectively. From the comparison of market value and capacity value, the elasticity from large to small is Sanyou chemical, Nanjing chemical fiber and Aoyang technology, which can be focused on.

Relevant information shows that from 2016 to now, the viscose staple fiber industry as a whole is in a state of high opening rate, low inventory and tight supply. At present, the inventory level of the whole industry is at a low level, and the operating rate reaches 90%, indicating that the industry is in a tight balance state. Along with the tight balance of the industry, the trend of product price rises. According to the business news agency, the middle end part of the price is relatively high, and the execution is still firm at 13700 yuan / ton. In fact, the mainstream negotiation is about 13500 yuan / ton, and the lower part is about 13200-13300 yuan / ton. The overall price of high-end products is resistant to decline, and most of the transaction negotiations are between 13800 yuan / ton and 13900 yuan / ton.