Dynamic Analysis Of Textile And Garment Industry

Core view

Market review: last week, the index split, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.09%, and the gem index rose 4.41%.

The industry rose 3.37% throughout the week, stronger than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, of which the textile manufacturing sector and the clothing home textile industry rose by 4.05% and 2.74% respectively.

In terms of stocks, last week, most of the stocks in the industry followed the index. Some of the stocks that had earlier increased were adjusted. The top companies were mainly those who had expected M & A and had little market capitalization. The companies we covered last week made good positive gains in search of A, Rand's shares.

Important information of A share industry and company:

(1) in 2014, October, there were hundreds of key large-scale enterprises in China.

Retail sales grew by 2.5% over the same period last year, of which apparel retail sales decreased by 2.5% compared with the same period last year, while retail sales of clothing decreased by 0.4% compared with the same period last year, and retail sales of cosmetics decreased by 1.9% over the same period last year.

(2) nine Mu Wang: in November 14th, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, nine Sheng Investment and finance Tong Securities, signed the "capital increase subscription agreement". The nine Sheng Investment intends to purchase 68 million shares of CAITONG securities at the price of 2.98 yuan / share. The total investment is about 203 million yuan, accounting for about 2% of the total share capital of CAITONG securities after the capital increase and expansion.

(3)

The company intends to cooperate with Hong Kong capital to launch domestic RMB funds and invest in large and medium-sized domestic consumption and retail businesses.

Last week's key report:

(1) the dynamic tracking of the stock market: 15 years, the bottom line, the equity incentive and the integration.

(2) search for special sales mail: Transformation of multi brand and multi category operation management company, the future market capitalization still has room for improvement.

(3) research on Vigna S's new shares: a high-end women's clothing brand with sound operation and rapidly rising market position.

Last week, the main research activities: this week we organized a telephone conference on the development status and future of the IPO company's wig Nash and the middle and high-end women's clothing industry. We believe that the current retail situation is facing the pressure of the high-end women's clothing brands in China, and the North style women's clothing is more stressed due to the factors such as the wind grid.

Mainstream brands are thinking about coping styles, including changes in product design concepts, concerns about price performance, fashion of products, and management structure changes of terminals.

Vigna S's brand is characterized by high cost performance, high proportion of direct investment and steady development in recent years. The performance growth in the last two years is obviously better than that of peers. The sales scale is relatively small, and there is still room for expansion and integration in the future.

The company issued on Monday, November 24th, issuing 36 million 995 thousand shares and issuing price of 20.02 yuan. We expect the 14-16 year profit growth rate of the company to be 3%, 18% and 19% respectively, and the issue price corresponds to 14 times the value of 21 times, suggesting the purchase.

Investment proposals and investment targets

At present, there are no signs of recovery in the fundamentals of the industry, but the pace of diversification and restructuring of listed companies is continuing.

Last week, nine major companies and seven wolves were important in investing. This also represents one of the directions for the future pformation of the brand with abundant capital and the adjustment of the main business.

This week, on the plate investment strategy, we suggest that we pay attention to the valuation switch of the steady growth Blue-chip company on the one hand. On the other hand, we should focus on the 15 year basic inflection point and the future industry integration. We should still grasp some expected restructuring opportunities according to the market style.

Risk warning

Industry investment risk comes mainly from domestic retail terminal recovery slower than expected.