Li Yining: Keeping GDP In 6.5%-7% Is Also Normal.

One of the earliest scholars who put forward the theory of shareholding reform in China. Born in Nanjing in November 1930. He graduated from the Department of economics of Peking University in 1955. After graduation, he remained in charge of the Department of economics and management of Peking University, and Dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. He is currently the director of the Social Sciences Department of Peking University and honorary Dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University.

Professor Li Yining has won many prizes for his outstanding contributions in economics and other academic fields, including the "Sun Ye Fang Economics Prize" and so on. He has put forward the theory of disequilibrium of China's economic development and has carried out theoretical discussions on "transformation", all of which have had a profound impact on the reform and development of China's economy. Professor Li Yining also presided over the drafting of the securities law and the securities investment fund law.

　　 How to understand "new normal"

Over the past few years, the rapid growth of China's economy is "abnormal", which is not sustainable and does not conform to the law of economic development. Therefore, the "new normal" mentioned today has two meanings: first, do what we can, and blindly pursue super fast growth is unfavorable to China's long-term economic growth. Second, the rapid growth of the economy has brought about the best opportunity for China's economy: excessive consumption of resources, deterioration of the ecosystem, low efficiency, overcapacity, and missed structural adjustment. Among them, the best time to miss structural adjustment is the most important.

Missed the best timing of structural adjustment will leave many "sequelae". Now we have to put the structural adjustment in an important position. Structural adjustment is more important than simply pursuing economic aggregate.

Although China's total GDP has leapt to the second place in the world, China is still lagging behind some developed countries in terms of structure. Because China's high-tech industry accounts for a relatively low proportion of GDP, not as high as developed countries. At the same time, although China's human resources structure has improved a lot over the past, the proportion of university graduates in the total population is relatively low, and China's skilled workforce is forming.

Under such circumstances, if China misses structural adjustment, it is the biggest loss. Therefore, now that "new normal" is put forward, there is the intention to avoid super fast growth and rationalize the economic structure as soon as possible.

The 12th Five-Year plan (2011 -2015) is about to end and the 13th Five-Year plan will be launched. For the 13th Five-Year plan, many experts (including myself) have proposed that to maintain a moderate growth rate, we can no longer pursue ultra high speed growth. The government should consider reducing GDP growth appropriately. If China's GDP can grow by 7%, it will be fine, even if it can be maintained at 6.5%-7%, it is normal, because economic growth should focus on improving the quality of the economy and improving the structure rather than simply pursuing economic growth.

　　 How to change rigid growth indicators?

For many years, the Chinese government has achieved the goal of growth by following orders. For example, the annual growth rate is 9%, and all over the country work hard to achieve the goal. This will lead to problems, both for local governments and for central governments. Because the local development plan was adopted by the local people's Congress, and the national development plan was adopted by the National People's Congress. Once these targets are passed, it means strict execution.

Therefore, in order to accomplish tasks or catch up with others, governments will be passive in spite of the quality and structural adjustment of economic growth.

Why is it very passive? The main reason is that the hard index means that it must be completed. If we want to complete the hard index, we mean that we should only focus on growth, so we can put the excess capacity, high cost and poor efficiency in a secondary position. We used to do such stupid things. The government strives to change this situation in the future.

It is gratifying to note that the practice of changing the growth rate from hard targets to flexible forecasts has been piloted in some places. It will be very helpful for China's economic growth and structural adjustment to test it for a period of time.

　　 How to view the current slowdown in economic growth?

There are several reasons for the decline in economic growth, such as declining exports and excessive sales of products. But at the same time, we should see another very important fact that China's actual GDP is higher than the figures released by the National Bureau of statistics, and it is year after year. Well, why do you see that?

First, farmers build houses in the western developed countries, which are included in GDP, while Chinese farmers never build houses in GDP.

Second, some of the income of the employed population is not included in the GDP. Now that more and more people are working as nanny and Yuesao, their wages are also getting higher and higher. At present, there are tens of millions of family nannies in China, but their salary is not included in GDP. In western developed countries, these people's income is counted as GDP.

Third, in China, the actual turnover of individual businesses in a year is pushed out through the package tax system, and their actual turnover will be higher than that calculated under the tax system. That is to say, a large number of individual industrial and commercial households in China have reported less turnover, and China's GDP statistics have been reduced. Recently, it is also stipulated that small and micro enterprises with less than 30 thousand yuan in monthly turnover will be exempt from tax, which makes it even more difficult to count their actual turnover.

Fourth, according to statistics in previous years, less than 35% of state-owned enterprises in China are composed of GDP, about 10% of foreign enterprises or slightly more than 55% of private enterprises. That is to say, China's private economy accounts for more than 55% of GDP. In recent years, some foreign scholars believe that China's GDP is false. In fact, this shows that they do not understand China. Because private economy usually chooses to report less turnover, so the proportion of private economy to GDP should exceed 55%.

We have to admit that China's actual GDP is more than that published by the National Bureau of statistics. In that case, don't be afraid that GDP growth will drop by 0.2 or 0.1 percentage points.

　　 Investment What is the relationship with employment?

This is an old problem in economics. In economics, it has always been the idea that new jobs appear in the process of economic growth as a result of investment. To increase employment, there must be a lot of investment.

But at present, China's situation has changed. China is heading towards a market economy. While vigorously promoting technological innovation or constantly replacing complete sets of equipment, the number of people employed in the new and high technology industry has decreased, because robots and automation have reduced manpower, and there is no need for new technology to employ so many people. This is an inevitable problem in the development of high technology.

In addition, China is strengthening environmental protection construction. For example, the current haze is caused by too much coal burning and too much smoke, so the whole country is promoting low carbonization. Low carbonization means that some enterprises must be shut down and some enterprises will be lost.

So what does China rely on to increase employment? How to maintain the sustainability of employment? The current policy of China is to develop private enterprises, develop small and micro enterprises, and encourage entrepreneurship. Now the establishment of small and micro enterprises, you can first business after the certificate, you can save a lot of procedures. At the same time, there are loans for small and micro enterprises.

At the same time, there are second situations, that is, China's agriculture is entering a new stage of development. This year, Central Document No. 1 officially proposed the development of family farms. This is a new formulation which has never been mentioned before. In the past, family farms mainly appeared in the United States, Canada, Western Europe and other countries. Now China is carrying out land ownership, and some areas have completed the right to rural land. This concept has been put forward accordingly.

Rural land ownership refers to the fact that in the past farmers' land was collectively owned without the right to be established, and peasants were actually undertakings of the ownership system. Now that is different, China is carrying out land ownership.

In 2012, the CPPCC economic group inspects villages and towns in Jiaxing, Zhejiang. At that time, Jiaxing had just completed the inspection of land ownership. After that, we went to the rural areas of Jiaxing, and saw that the village was full of firecrackers and red. This excitement is usually only when there are happy events in the countryside. The work of land confirmation has just been completed, and farmers set off firecrackers to celebrate this event. Therefore, all the ground is firecrackers.

What is land right? In short, it is the three powers and three certificates. Farmers have the right to contract for the management of land, and the government gives farmers land management warrants. Farmers have the right to use the homestead, the government gives farmers the right to use their homestead, farmers have the right to build houses on the homestead, and the government issues farmers' property certificates.

After the completion of the land ownership, the three rights and three certificates were given to the farmers, and the farmers were relieved. There was no need to worry about the future of the land occupation without my consent. The farmers' houses could not be arbitrarily removed, because they all violated the farmers' property rights.

According to the statistical data of Jiaxing, the ratio of urban per capita income to rural per capita income is 3.1/1 before land ownership is established. After the completion of land ownership, this proportion has changed to 1.9/1. From this we can see that after the land ownership, the farmers' income has greatly increased.

Why does the income of farmers increase? First, after the completion of land ownership, farmers are at ease in rural areas to develop farming and aquaculture. Second, farmers can rest assured to work outside, rent land to others, collect land rent, and at the same time, farmers find a job in the city, so income increases; third, farmers built new houses, rented to others, can get monthly rental income, so farmers income increased.

We saw in a village in Pinghu, Jiaxing, that the old houses in the village were all demolished and covered by four floors. I asked the villagers if they could live so many houses, the villagers said, a storefront was rented to foreigners to open a shop, two storehouses were rented, and their families lived on the third floor and the four floor.

There is another unexpected gain in land ownership, which is to measure land before making the right. After surveying, the land area has increased by 20%. Why does it increase by 20%?

First, more than 30 years ago, the rural land contracted management. At that time, the quality of the rural land was good and bad. When the land was contracted, it was good for one mu to one mu, and the bad land was two Mu to one mu. Over the past 30 years, the quality of the land has been raised after the intensive farming of the farmers. Therefore, when the land is measured this time, it is an acre of acre and no longer converted.

Two, at the beginning of the contract, farmers used cattle to plowing, and the land was small and small. There were many fields. At that time, when calculating the land area, the ridges should be deducted, and the area covering the sun on both sides of the ridge should also be deducted. Now farmers have used tractors, transplanter and so on. Small plots of land are not easy to use machines, and the ridge of fields has been gradually shaved off. So when the survey is made, there will be more arable land.

Three, before 2006, China also levies agricultural taxes, and how much tax is collected. When farmers report their land, they try to report less. For example, an acre of land is reported in three acres, because more tax is to be paid. Almost every family. Now that the agriculture tax has been abolished, and the land has just been measured, the peasants have reported it faithfully, no one wants to report it down. If the land area is less reported, when farmland is rented or subcontracted, shares will be lost if cultivated land is understated.