Macro Economy Is Lower Than Expected Brand Clothing Demand Downward

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< p > clothing home textiles: the demand is still dim. The rhythm of going to stock determines the turning point of performance. In 1-5 months, the total retail sales of clothing above the limit increased by 9.7% over the same period last year, down from 11.1% in the same period last year. Low consumption environment, thanks to the overall operation quality improvement, effective control fees, brand enterprise profit table slightly improved, but the revenue inflection point has not yet been seen, balance sheet is still not good, the industry as a whole is still going to inventory stage. However, industry performance has been divided, fashion, leisure and home textiles have taken the lead in going out of business, and orders have begun to grow. In the short term, judging from the continued downturn in demand, we expect the industry to be optimistic in the second half of the year. It is suggested that we should pay attention to those who are strong in risk management or go to inventory earlier, and those with larger contribution to online business, such as Hai Lan's home, Pathfinder, Luo Lai home textile and Semir apparel. This company expects better business in the second half and next year, and is expected to usher in a valuation switch at the end of the year. < /p >
< p > transformation of brand management mode is a major trend. The end of the inventory of this round of industry does not mean that the new round of cycle will start simply. Over the past two years, the high inventory of clothing, in addition to the impact of the consumer environment, is an increasingly difficult way to stack the wholesale distribution mode. Under the traditional wholesale mode, the brand value chain is characterized by channel driven, brand dealers are kidnapped by channel dealers, isolated from consumer demand, and have low ability to co-ordinate product, supply chain and retail terminal response. The traditional mode faces three challenges: first, the asymmetry of product information asymmetry is broken in the Internet era; the active consumption demand drives supply; the two is the brand competition pattern showing the new characteristics of globalization and differentiation and Internet, and the aggravation of competition pressure; the three is the rise of new channels, such as the heart, online and so on, on the channel, and the diversion of traditional street stores and department stores. Therefore, the traditional way to achieve rapid development through price increase and extensive expansion has been difficult to continue. Retail transformation, intensive management, multi brand strategy, trying all channels O2O and industrial chain extension are the five main transformation paths of brand enterprises. < /p >
< p > four dimensions to find the potential of successful transformation. From the industry point of view, we choose to cater to the domestic clothing consumption from the low income group to the middle and high crowd, and to the optional consumer category upgrading company; from the competition point of view, choose the companies which are under the pressure of foreign and online competition pressure; from the management inertia angle, the brand enterprise transformation touches the traditional management module and thinking of the company, and the inertia of traditional operation management is the important factor that restricts the remodeling of self mode for many years. Therefore, the choice of the target business is not large or the difficulty of the supply chain extension is low, the back-end system is easy to transform. Based on this, in the medium to long term, we recommend the potential Pathfinder of transformation and the innovative and innovative Hai Lan home, which is expected to enjoy double opportunities for performance and valuation. < /p >
< p > textile manufacturing: slow recovery of demand, the industry as a whole is not as good as last year. In the two quarter, overseas demand rebounded, and export growth rebounded slightly. It is expected to be around 10% for the whole year. We have judged that China's newspaper industry has seen a slight improvement in its revenue, but because of the continued decline in raw material prices such as cotton, the gross profit margin is expected to improve profitability. From a medium to long term perspective, we believe that under the trend of brand led supply chain restructuring and business mode transformation, the value of quality suppliers will be highlighted. It is recommended to pay attention to Lu Tai and Weixing shares. < /p >
< p > key recommendation: Pathfinder (outdoor industry Bull Stock potential), Hai Lan home (China Version UNIQLO). < /p >
< p > risk warning: macro economy is lower than expected, brand clothing demand further downward. < /p >