Monthly Report Of Textile And Garment Industry: Cotton Price Difference Narrowed Clothing Sales Growth

"P > Market Review: the benefited 1-2 months of the more beautiful export data" a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > textile manufacturing < /a > plate fall 0.2% run to win the big plate.

This month the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.3%, the Shenzhen stock index fell 4.88%, the textile and garment 3.87%'s decline slightly run the market.

Due to the more beautiful export data in 1-2 months, the textile manufacturing sector dropped only 0.18% in the market.

In contrast, domestic demand recovery is relatively weak, clothing home textile plate fell 7.19%, losing market.

< /p >

< p > Valuation: it is more reasonable to compare vertically and horizontally.

The static PE of the textile and garment sector is 19.4 times, and the premium rate is 12.86 times that of all A shares, 1.51 times that of PE, which is basically 1.49 times the average level since 2008.

The brand clothing sector averaged PE15.51 times in 2013, higher than the average 14.31 times of Hong Kong stocks, but lower than the average of 18.14 times the Hong Kong stock market and overseas market.

Among them, the key companies with lower valuation than the industry average have reported birds (8.1 times PE in 2013), AOKANG International (11.3 times), seven wolves (12.2 times), nine herds (12.5 times) and Luo Lai home textiles (13.5 times).

< /p >

< p > raw materials: the difference between cotton prices at home and abroad decreased from 4034 yuan / ton to 3196 yuan / ton this month, with a reduction of 20.8%.

Affected by the policy of storage and storage, the stock in the end of 2012/13 in China increased by 46% over the previous year, accounting for 54% of the global stock. At the same time, USDA estimated that the cotton output in China increased by 6% over the previous year in 2012/13. It is estimated that the domestic cotton price volatility will not fluctuate for a long time in the future.

2012/13's global cotton output is 120 million packs, down 3% from last year.

We believe that with the recovery of demand, the increase of cotton prices will be higher than that of domestic cotton prices. The trend of domestic and foreign cotton price differentials is expected to continue.

< /p >

< p > exports: exports increased by 31.8% in 1-2 months, and exports to Europe resumed growth.

In 1-2 months, the total export volume of textile and apparel reached US $41 billion 167 million, an increase of 31.82% over the same period last year, an increase of 34.41 percentage points over the same period in 2012, an increase of 28.99 percentage points over the 2.84% growth rate in 2012 and a marked rebound.

In January, the export growth rates of the two main export markets in Europe and the United States were 2.44% and 2.98%, respectively, representing second consecutive months of positive growth since December 2012.

Exports to major ASEAN countries have declined by 1.32%, and exports to Japan have fallen by 9.69%.

< /p >

< p > domestic demand: in 1-2 months, retail sales increased by 5%, retail sales increased by 2%, and retail sales increased by quarter.

In 1-2 months, the retail sales volume of 100 major large-scale retail enterprises increased by 5% over the same period last year, down 3.7 percentage points, down 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year.

Among them, the retail sales of clothing increased by 2% over the same period last year, which is consistent with the year-on-year growth in total retail sales in 2012, up 6.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

In the 1-4 quarter of 2012, the volume of retail sales of all the major retail enterprises in China increased by -2.87%, 0.99%, 1.7% and 2% respectively.

Although retail sales data are relatively flat, the steady increase in retail sales indicates that the strategy of price reduction for garment enterprises has achieved certain results.

< /p >

< p > results announcement: 40 companies that announced earnings forecasts increased by 5.11% year-on-year in 2012, operating profit decreased by 18.64% compared to the same period last year, and net profit attributable to a decrease of 13.78% over the same period last year.

Of these, 19 textile manufacturing companies increased their operating income in 2012 by 4.04% compared with the same period last year, operating profit decreased by 51.63% compared to the same period last year, and net profit attributable to a decrease of 34.75% compared to the same period last year.

The 21 apparel home textile enterprises operating income increased by 6.3% compared to the same period, operating profit decreased by 4.01% compared to the same period last year, and net profit attributable to a decrease of 3.15% compared to the same period last year.

< /p >

< p > investment suggestion: this month, < a href= "http://www.sjfwww.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.aspzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton price difference < /a > further narrowing, and domestic demand data is relatively flat. At the moment, the valuation of brand clothing is relatively reasonable, and there is a lack of catalytic agent in the short term. We believe that the textile manufacturing plate is more attractive than the brand clothing plate. It is suggested that the Lutai A (cotton spinning head), the Huafu color spinning, the Bailong Orient (color spinning duopoly) which are narrowed by the benefit of cotton price reduction will be recommended, and the 2012 annual report is more beautiful than that of the Xingye Technology (shoe upper leather dragon head, which has long been benefited from the backward production capacity of the industry).

< /p >

< p > risk warning: terminal consumption continues to slump, channel costs rise, terminal inventory is high, offshore economic recovery is lower than expected.

< /p >

< p > Market Review: benefiting from 1-2 months more beautiful export data, textile manufacturing sector fell 0.2% to win the market.

Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.3% this month, Shenzhen composite index fell 4.88%, textile and apparel 3.87% of the decline slightly outperformed the market.

Due to the more beautiful export data in 1-2 months, the textile manufacturing sector dropped only 0.18% in the market.

In contrast, domestic demand recovery is relatively weak, clothing home textile plate fell 7.19%, losing market.

< /p >

< p > Valuation: it is more reasonable to compare vertically and horizontally.

The static PE of the textile and garment sector is 19.4 times, and the premium rate is 12.86 times that of all A shares, 1.51 times that of PE, which is basically 1.49 times the average level since 2008.

The brand clothing sector averaged PE15.51 times in 2013, higher than the average 14.31 times of Hong Kong stocks, but lower than the average of 18.14 times the Hong Kong stock market and overseas market.

Among them, the key companies with lower valuation than the industry average have reported birds (8.1 times PE in 2013), AOKANG International (11.3 times), seven wolves (12.2 times), nine herds (12.5 times) and Luo Lai home textiles (13.5 times).

< /p >

< p > raw materials: the difference between cotton prices at home and abroad decreased from 4034 yuan / ton to 3196 yuan / ton this month, with a reduction of 20.8%.

Affected by the policy of storage and storage, the stock in the end of 2012/13 in China increased by 46% over the previous year, accounting for 54% of the global stock. At the same time, USDA estimated that the cotton output in China increased by 6% over the previous year in 2012/13. It is estimated that the domestic cotton price volatility will not fluctuate for a long time in the future.

2012/13's global cotton output is 120 million packs, down 3% from last year.

We believe that with the recovery of demand, the increase of cotton prices will be higher than that of domestic cotton prices. The trend of domestic and foreign cotton price differentials is expected to continue.

< /p >

< p > exports: exports increased by 31.8% in 1-2 months, and exports to Europe resumed growth.

In 1-2 months, the total export volume of textile and apparel reached US $41 billion 167 million, an increase of 31.82% over the same period last year, an increase of 34.41 percentage points over the same period in 2012, an increase of 28.99 percentage points over the 2.84% growth rate in 2012 and a marked rebound.

In January, the export growth rates of the two main export markets in Europe and the United States were 2.44% and 2.98%, respectively, representing second consecutive months of positive growth since December 2012.

Exports to major ASEAN countries have declined by 1.32%, and exports to Japan have fallen by 9.69%.

< /p >

< p > domestic demand: in 1-2 months, retail sales increased by 5%, retail sales increased by 2%, and retail sales increased by quarter.

In 1-2 months, the retail sales volume of 100 major large-scale retail enterprises increased by 5% over the same period last year, down 3.7 percentage points, down 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year.

Among them, the retail sales of clothing increased by 2% over the same period last year, which is consistent with the year-on-year growth in total retail sales in 2012, up 6.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

In the 1-4 quarter of 2012, the volume of retail sales of all the major retail enterprises in China increased by -2.87%, 0.99%, 1.7% and 2% respectively.

Although retail sales data are relatively flat, the steady increase in retail sales indicates that the strategy of price reduction for garment enterprises has achieved certain results.

< /p >

< p > results announcement: 40 companies that announced earnings forecasts increased by 5.11% year-on-year in 2012, operating profit decreased by 18.64% compared to the same period last year, and net profit attributable to a decrease of 13.78% over the same period last year.

Of these, 19 textile manufacturing companies increased their operating income in 2012 by 4.04% compared with the same period last year, operating profit decreased by 51.63% compared to the same period last year, and net profit attributable to a decrease of 34.75% compared to the same period last year.

The 21 apparel home textile enterprises operating income increased by 6.3% compared to the same period, operating profit decreased by 4.01% compared to the same period last year, and net profit attributable to a decrease of 3.15% compared to the same period last year.

< /p >

< p > investment suggestion: the cotton price difference has further narrowed this month, while the domestic demand data is relatively flat. At present, the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > brand apparel < /a > the valuation is relatively reasonable, and there is a lack of catalyst in the short term. We believe that the textile manufacturing plate is more attractive than the brand clothing and decoration sector. It is suggested that the Lutai A (cotton spinning head), the Huafu color spinning, the Bailong Orient (color spinning duopoly) which are narrowed by the benefit of cotton price reduction will be recommended, and the 2012 annual report is more beautiful than that of the Xingye Technology (shoe upper leather leader, which has long been benefited from the backward production capacity of the industry).

< /p >

< p > risk warning: terminal consumption continues to slump, channel costs rise, terminal inventory is high, offshore economic recovery is lower than expected.

< /p >