It Is Estimated That US Cotton Output Will Be Substantially Reduced In 2012/13.

Overnight, ICE cotton futures fell on Tuesday, as manufacturers rose on the two day to boost the price of cotton to two and a half months after the shipment, after a month of cotton in the range of pactions.

Index ICE12 cotton contract fell 0.42%, 75.40 cents per pound, 75.98 cents higher.

Market waiting

The global demand and supply report will be released by the Ministry of agriculture on Friday.

On the news side, the USDA monthly forecast released by the US Stone Company has predicted that the output of US cotton will be greatly reduced in the 2012/13 year, and the output of US cotton is expected to be reduced by 109 thousand tons, and that it is possible to continue to decline in the later stage because of the sharp reduction in the area of broadcasting and the continued drought in cotton producing areas.

The reduction of export volume is relatively small, the two are offset, and the US fundamentals have tightened slightly.

In the international market, in August 7th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton continued to rise, of which the US cotton and Australia cotton rose significantly, reaching 1.75-2.8 cents, while West Africa cotton rose 0.75 cents.

From the market situation, there is no improvement in downstream demand, but some hype for good news temporarily promotes cotton prices.

On the one hand, India cotton may be banned from export. Although it is too early to discuss the issue, it does bring psychological impact to the market. On the other hand, the news that China will issue additional quotas is rampant, and port inventory pressure is expected to be eased.

However, before the implementation of the news, the rising price of cotton prices is not strong enough to spit up any time.

Domestic market, 7, domestic cotton spot prices stabilized, recently, the market speculation India monsoon rainfall postponed,

Easing, short-term international cotton prices may continue to rise, and led Zheng cotton for two consecutive days, but the current global textiles

Consumption is still shrinking, cotton prices in China are still significantly higher than international cotton prices, and exports are less competitive. The industry should be cautious about this rebound.

Spot quotation. In August 7th, the US C/A cotton quotation was 91.60 (cents / pound), the general trade port delivery price was 15581 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation was 96.85, the general trade port price was 16297 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 94.85, the general trade port delivery price was 16020 yuan / ton, the West African cotton quotation was 88.35, the general trade port delivery price was 15158 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation was 88.85, the general trade port delivery price was 15222 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19439 yuan / ton; the B index is 18528 yuan.

Market analysis, the United States blessing four released USDA forward-looking forecast report that the end of the U.S. cotton stocks will decline, making the recent focus of the US cotton futures have moved upward, while China's stock market after the end of this year's stock purchase is slightly tight, although the industry policy adjustment period is still unclear.

After 2 consecutive days of sharp rise in the US, the overnight cotton market stopped for a short time, with a recent pressure of 76. Zheng cotton yesterday stood on the MA60 under the impetus of the external market.

On the operation, Zheng cotton pays attention to the price performance on the 60 day moving average, if it stabilizes, it can try more.