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Textile And Apparel Industry: The Fundamentals Need To Be Improved By &Nbsp; Performance Growth Is In Line With Expectations.

2012/3/22 10:07:00 50

Last week's market review

Last week, the textile and garment sector rose by 0.38% (apparel home textiles rose 1.99%).

Textile manufacturing

Rose -1.59%), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.53%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.42%.

Thanks to the strong performance of home textiles, the overall performance of the home textile sector is obviously better than that of the big market.

In terms of stocks, we have recommended that we have a good performance in the 7.23% main types, the lucky birds and the seven wolves, with a weekly gain of 3.7%, 3.11%.

Industry key data

In February, the export volume of textiles and clothing was US $9 billion 710 million, down 7% compared with the same period last year, of which 4 billion 260 million US dollars in textile exports, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year, and 5 billion 450 million US dollars in clothing exports, down 15.1% over the same period last year.

According to the data of 3000 major retail enterprises of the Ministry of Commerce, clothing consumption was -3.2% in February.

Raw material prices, 328 spot cotton spot price 19621 yuan / ton, and last week

basic

Flat; 336 grade long staple cotton spot price 23 thousand and 100 / ton, a slight decrease of 0.43% compared with last week; polyester staple fiber price 11 thousand and 450 / ton, a slight decrease of 1.46% compared with last week; viscose staple fiber 16 thousand and 200 / ton, down 2.41% compared with last week; 40D light spandex silk price 43 thousand / ton lower than last week.

Performance growth and order expectations

Home textiles rebounded overall on Friday. We believe that the rise is not much related to fundamentals. It is estimated that the terminal retail sales of 10%+ will be increased by 1 in February and three in the market, and that in March, it will be the peak season for each household. The final status of a quarterly report will still depend on the data in March. However, the overall income growth rate is estimated to be more than 20%.

Good news bird: order meeting we expect growth rate to be conservative 25%-28%; in the first quarter growth rate, we judge the income between 20%-30%, the profit growth rate is more than 30%.

Seven wolves: we expect the order to increase by 25%+.

After the end tracking data, the terminal retail sales in February will be 30%+ in the first quarter.

Speed up

The overall is relatively high, taking into account the gross margin increase, net profit growth of about 40%.

Card slave Road: the order growth rate is expected to be around 30%, and terminal retail growth is expected to be equivalent to that.

We maintain the "prudent recommendation" rating for the industry since February 12th weekly.

The textile and garment sector has already digested all kinds of disadvantages ahead of time.

Factor

Although the climate factor is not good, it is estimated that most enterprises will have a smooth pition in the quarterly growth rate, and the order will increase by over 20%.

In the case of stabilizing the market, taking into account the certainty of clothing growth, plate elasticity over the market elasticity.

In the short term, the better brand clothing should be concentrated on the relatively high growth stocks in the first quarter, such as the long - style shares, the wedding birds, the seven wolves, etc.

We still have a relatively pessimistic attitude towards productive enterprises.

In the near future, we recommend the listed companies, the good news birds, the blue stock and the seven wolves.

Among them, good luck birds based on the company's brand operation ability, a relatively high quarterly growth rate in 2012, and more than 80 large stores in 2011 driving the performance of 2012; the main part of the company is based on the following points: first, we estimate that 2012Q1 growth is relatively high in brand clothing; secondly, based on the promotion effect of the new listing brand, it is expected that the sales will be relatively fast in 2012; and the third is based on the strategy of building multi brand platform to open up space for the company's long-term growth.

The seven wolves are mainly based on the relatively high expected growth rate of 2012Q1 and the potential of channel integration.