Inventories Hit A New High Of &Nbsp In 08 Years; Zheng Cotton Rose Hard To Sustain.

During the Spring Festival, the US dollar index continued to callback, commodities.

Global cotton supply and demand easing

According to the latest prediction by the US Department of agriculture, the global cotton production in the new year will exceed 2 million 630 thousand tons, which is significantly higher than that of the previous year's 400 thousand tons.

If China is excluded, cotton production in the rest of the world will exceed 4 million tons, which means that the supply and demand of global cotton will be significantly relaxed in the new year.

Although the cotton association of China recently predicted that the domestic cotton planting area may decline by 10.5% over the same period this year, the central government will announce the cotton purchase and storage plan in 2012 before mid March.

Taking into account this year's grain purchase price rising factors indirectly pull, do not rule out the 2012 cotton purchase and storage prices will also rise.

At that time, the price increase will change the previous cotton growers' willingness to grow, and in addition to the over supply last year, the cotton planting area will have little effect on cotton price.

Before and after the Spring Festival, the world bank and the International Monetary Fund (micro-blog) respectively lowered China's economic growth forecast in the next two years. The main reason is that the EU is expected to reduce imports of Chinese goods.

As the main export place of China's textile and clothing, the European Union's economic condition will also directly reduce China's consumption of cotton.

Although domestic textile and garment exports increased by 22.8% over the same period last year, the growth rate was lower than the average in ten years.

Among them, the market share of the 25 largest export markets of the European Union, the United States and Japan also basically dropped by 1-3 percentage points. Three.

As for the current situation, the domestic downstream demand is still in the doldrums, and the government's purchasing and storage has been supporting the consumer market for more than half a day, so as to control cotton prices in a dangerous situation.

But because of the low price of cotton, even after the adjustment of the sliding quota, cotton imports will still be profitable.

At present, the price advantage of foreign cotton is more obvious, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is maintained at 1500 yuan / ton.

Driven by high profits, cotton imports will continue to arrive in large quantities after the holidays, thus inhibiting domestic cotton prices.

Inventories hit a new high in 08 years.

At present, the production and sale rate of gauze in China has dropped significantly, and the enthusiasm of purchasing enterprises in downstream textile enterprises is difficult to upgrade.

According to the latest survey report provided by the national cotton market monitoring system, the current domestic yarn sales rate is only 92.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points over the average of nearly three years, or even lower than that of the 2008 financial crisis.

At the same time, the sales rate of grey cloth is even worse, only 81.3%, which is 16.3 percentage points lower than the average of 97.6% years in the past three years.

A drop of one percentage point in production and sales rate will directly respond to social inventory.

At present, the inventory of domestic grey goods has increased by 25 days over the past three years, the highest level in 08 years, and the high consumption terminal inventory will inhibit the uplink of the upstream cotton price.

From a macro perspective, although there are more positive news in the short term, demand is generally in a weak state from the actual consumption situation of various countries.

In the new year, the domestic textile export situation is grim, and the price of domestic and foreign cotton is too high. The cost factors will directly lead to the loss of competitiveness of China's cotton textile exports.

In addition, the loose pattern of production and demand and high terminal inventory will also restrict the uplink of cotton prices.