External Heat And Internal Cooling Block Up For The First Half Of The Year. China'S Economy Is Beginning To Block Completely.

Economic data will be released in the first half of 2011.

The macroeconomic situation we are facing is hot and cold, blocking everywhere and increasing pressure.

Overall, China's economy is like a barrier lake.

The first barrier lake, entity

From a national perspective, investment pull made the first half of the year.

From the point of view of production, China

The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, which reflects SMEs, dropped from 51.6% in May to 50.1%, and the production index dropped to a critical value of 50, indicating that the production of SMEs is at a standstill.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are suffering from cold winter.

20% of SMEs in Wenzhou are in a state of semi shutdown. A number of official surveys in Wenzhou showed that in the first 3 months of 2011, the profits of 35 main export oriented enterprises such as Wenzhou eyeglasses, lighters, pens, locks and so on decreased by about 30% compared with that of the previous year, and the losses accounted for more than 1/4. A sampling survey showed that 42.9% of the current tight capital enterprises accounted for 42.9%.

However, local governments, banking regulatory authorities and people's daily all indicated that Wenzhou's SMEs did not fall into bankruptcy.

Whether or not to admit it, SMEs are in a predicament, private enterprises are divided, and some large private enterprises, which cross virtual and entity, are in the process of expansion, and the traditional small and medium-sized private enterprises are at risk.

Due to the inertia of huge money shocks, prices will remain high, and the high point is expected in July.

As CPI remains high, foreign exchange reserves continue to increase, and monetary policy can not be relaxed.

When Premier Wen Jiabao visited Liaoning in early July, he said that although some factors that drive price increases have been controlled to a certain extent, they have not been fundamentally eliminated. The overall level of stabilizing prices remains the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control.

Second dammed lakes, there is a huge gap between credit funds and private capital in the system.

Bank disintermediation, thousands of troops through the private financial channels to enter the usury market, including financial institutions within the system.

According to the data released by the central bank in July 12th, new RMB loans in June amounted to 633 billion 900 million yuan. In the first half of the year, the scale of RMB credit was 4 trillion and 170 billion yuan, which was 449 billion 700 million yuan less than that of the previous year, and it was controlled within the target of 7 trillion ~7.5 trillion yuan throughout the year.

The broad money issue and the narrow money issue both declined.

At the end of 6, the balance of broad money (M2) was 78 trillion and 80 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% over the same period last year, 0.8 percentage points higher than the end of last month. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 27 trillion and 470 billion yuan, up 13.1% over the same period last year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the end of last month.

So much investment in the past year and last year, M2 dropped to below 16%.

Just looking at M2 data will make us feel an illusion about the real financial situation.

The funds in the system are tight, and more and more private entrepreneurs' news of committing suicide under the usury is reported in the newspapers; the institutional foreign capital is surging, and the group has been galloping in the investment fields such as artworks, precious metals, commercial industrial real estate, and even pushed up the Vancouver housing prices across the ocean.

By raising the deposit rate, the money is driven into the cage, but the stock currency will not evaporate without a chance.

The consequences of severe credit crackdown are that many projects launched at the stage of financial expansion are faced with the risk of capital chain breaking and turn to private finance.

From the perspective of the author's understanding, in some places, investment and financing platforms are coordinating the positions with the help of private usury funds, which indicates that the funds are tight enough to be unthinkable.

The real interest rate far exceeds the benchmark lending rate 4 times the standard of floating, outside the regulatory Guarantee Corporation and other financial institutions, together with private capital, into the vast market of usury, and banks have long been deviating from the main business, has become a financial product distribution center.

Will the central bank raise the deposit rate? Of course, as long as foreign exchange is increasing.

At the end of 6 2011, the balance of national foreign exchange reserves was 31975 billion US dollars, an increase of 30.3% over the same period last year.

Will the central bank increase interest rates? There may be another time, until the CPI is stable, and the 5 year deposit rate is flat with CPI, putting the most conservative investors in a way.

The administrative tightening policy has played an effective role. On the surface, the economy has begun to reverse its fever. The side effect is the full blockage of the real economy and finance.

Economic dammed lakes exist for a long time, which reminds us of the boundaries of administrative power. The administrative regulation makes the Chinese economy hot and cold, and the financial microcirculation is not smooth. If the institutional adjustment is not made, the market will return to the center of the stage, and the economy will stagflate in the second half of the year.