Tight Global Cotton Supply
International Cotton Advisory Committee
(ICAC) the latest report was released in July 1st: in June, the Cotlook A index was suspended after June 22nd because of a sharp reduction in the quotas for cotton in 09/10.
Cotlook A index 09/10 annual average of 78 cents / pound, 28% higher than 08/09, also the highest since 96/97.
The 2010/11 Cotlook A new flower index in May 16th was the only index that is still being released.
As global cotton production continues to decline and textile cotton recovers, the 09/10 end of the year is expected to be 9 million 600 thousand tonnes, down 21% from the same period last year, the lowest level since 03/04.
Global inventory consumption dropped from 52% in 08/09 to 39% in 09/10, the lowest since 1993/94.
Before the new flower picking in the northern hemisphere in August, global cotton supply remained tight.
In 2010/11, global cotton production is expected to rebound by 14% to 25 million tons.
The increase is due to the expansion of cotton planting area, which is the response of cotton growers to the increase of cotton prices in 09/10 and the decline of grain and oilseed crops prices.
Under the continuous improvement of global economic growth, but also limited by the high cotton price and the re reserve effect slowing down, the global textile cotton consumption is expected to continue to grow by 2%, to 24 million 900 thousand tons.
Due to the balance of cotton production and consumption in 2010/11, the end of the world inventory will remain unchanged at 9 million 600 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio will remain at 39%.
ICAC
The price model predicts that the Cotlook A index will have an average of 87 cents per pound in 2010/11, with a probability of 95% between 73-103 cents / pound.
That means an increase of 12% over the 2009/10 estimate.
However, we must pay attention to the uncertainty existing in the bulk commodity market.
(China Cotton Association)
Annual output (10000 tons)
Consumption
(10000 tons) export volume (10000 tons) end inventory (10000 tons) Cotlook A index (cents / pound)
2008/09 23362346662120861
2009/10 2200245078096078
2010/11 2500249079096087
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